A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
